forex news....... 4 now ! ! !.

1. Thursday March 4, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) UK

BOE Rate Decision Forecast 0.50% Previous 0.50%

UK's BOE, Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is once
again scheduled to release their interest rate decision today and
the expectations are to keep both their official rates at 0.50% and
APF (Asset Purchasing Facility) at 200 Billion Pound (at least for
the time being). The important focus as usual today will be the
accompanying BOE Statement if they decide to release one.

Since last Parliament testimony by BOE officials, including Governor
Melvyn King, Sterling has been under pressure as the outlook of UK's
economy was grim to say the least. With Greece out of the European
nations casting spotlight on debt issues, UK's own debt is also
under scrutiny as we saw the heavy depreciation of the Sterling
since last rate decision back in Feb. 4.

If the BOE Statement focus on the same rhetoric of late, i.e. the
negative outlook on UK's economy, expect to see a sell-off of GBP
once again.

2. Thursday March 4, 2010 (7:45am NY Time) EU

ECB Rate Decision Forecast 1.00% Previous 1.00%

ECB (European Central Bank) is likely to once again leave its
minimum bid rate at 1.00% or unchanged this month. The majority of
analysts agree to this sentiment as according to ECB, it is will
keep rates unchaged until 2011.

Euro Zone is still plagued with the imbalanced economic recovery of
its member countries, especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy...
As a matter of fact, even with the Austerity Measures issued by
Greece yesterday, the risk of a sovereign default is still possible.

With the current market still showing a weaker EUR against the USD
as the current market unable to stay above the 1.3700 at the time of
writing this analysis, we could see another renewed sense of EUR
sell-offs later on today.

However, as ECB rate decisions are concerned, generally ECB is not
in the habit of surprising the market because any surprise on the
world's most traded currency pair (EUR/USD) would upset economy,
therefore I expected everything to be released as expected... The real
mover will be the press conference hosted at 8:30am (in 45 minutes)
by ECB Trichet, which may shed some new light over ECB's monetary
policy.

Of course, I suggest that we stick around during the release just in
case ECB decides to surprise the market, but most likely we won't
see much of a market volatility.

forex for TODAY and TOMORROW

NEWS TRADING (By Henry Liu)
1. Friday February 5, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) CA
Employment Changes       Forecast 15.2K    Previous -2.6K
Unemployment Rate        Forecast 8.5%     Previous 8.5%
If the employment number is higher, we would SELL USD/CAD, and if
the employment number is lower, we would BUY USD/CAD.  This news
indicator measures the numbers of new jobs created during the
previous month, however in this case, we will see how many jobs were
actually lost, and less negative numbers mean better economy.
Our surprise factor will be at least 30K.  Historically, it has
moved the market by at least 50 pips if the surprise factor is hit
by at least 80% of the time.
2. Friday February 5, 2010 (8:30am NY Time) US
NonFarm Payroll         Forecast 10K      Previous -85K
Unemployment Rate       Forecast 10%      Previous 10%
We'll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K
with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last
NFP, you'd know that the last release disappointed the market and
kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after
a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December
release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. 
At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk
aversion mode.
With the forecast on NFP turning positive for the first time, we
could see a bullish sentiment on the USD as a result of market
psychology.  However, there are several things that we need to
consider for tomorrow's NFP release.
First of all, there is a possible increase in the total jobs count
as the Obama administration hired over 550K temporary workers for
the national census.  Should this number make in the January 2010
count, expect to see a blow out positive number in the NFP release
and a possible 1.0% decrease in the unemployment rate.
Secondly, the BLS or Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its
annual benchmark revision for the payrolls.  Expect to see a
significant downward revision on the first quarter of 2009, which
may offset the NFP release numbers all together if the revision is
significant.
Therefore, let's talk about how to trade this release: We'll wait
for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even
if we get our tradable figures (-60K or 80K).  We'll wait for a
possible revision to the previous release number, which is -85K, as
the market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor
for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases
between the revision and the actual release; then we will wait for
the Benchmark Revision... at this point, still stay out of the market.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at
10.0%.  If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, we'll have
to really make an executive decision at the time of the release and
see what is the primary focus of traders.  As long as we don't
surprise the 10.5%, I think the market will probably pay more
attention to the NFP release.  Of course if the census workers were
to be included in this release, then expect to have a much lower
than expected unemployment rate...
After all of the numbers have been released.  Wait for the market to
push... then be patient and wait for a decent retracement before
getting in.  Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a
high impact news with various components will usually be extremely
volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to
enter at much better entry.
DEFINITION
"Measures the change in number of employed people during the
previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has
a positive effect on the nation's currency. Job creation is an
important indicator of economic health because consumer spending,
which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large
portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates
to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises."

FOREX TIPS

February 2, 2010 Current level-1.3922 EUR/USD is in a downtrend, after peaking at 1.5146 (Nov.25,2009). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.4793 and 1.4169.    The break above 1.3920 signals, that the pair has entered a larger corrective phase ans will target 1.40+ sentiment level, before drowning to 1.3740 support.
resistance	support
intraday intraweek 1.3990 1.4260 1.4260 1.5146	intraday intraweek 1.3852 1.3740 1.3740 1.30+

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USD/JPY

USD/JPY
February 2, 2010 Current level - 90.56 The overall downtrend has been renewed with the recent break below 87.12. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 89.50 and 93.54. We saw on more test in the 90.90 resistance area and the pair is still struggling below that zone. Only a break below 89.79 will initiate a downtrend for 88.36, en route to 87.35. The intraday bias is positive, well supported at 90.45.
resistance	support
intraday intraweek 90.90 93.40 91.90 95.60	intraday intraweek 90.45 87.36 89.78 79.60

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